Good question
Will Base daily active wallets exceed 1.5M before the next upgrade window?
Community
Markets should come from the people who care enough to ask the right question.
SagePred treats market creation as a public process: a proposal starts in Farcaster, the community reacts, the market team checks the criteria and the best questions move forward.
Farcaster first
Replies and quote-casts
Public discussion
Criteria
Before launch
measurable
Clear resolution source
tradeable
Enough interest to matter
Farcaster proposal flow
Social signal is the front door, not an afterthought.
Base
Will Base exceed 3M monthly active addresses before the end of the next quarter?
A good proposal is narrow, measurable and interesting enough that people actually want to debate it. Replies can identify missing context. Quote-casts can lift edge cases. The market team can assess whether the signal is real.
This is clean because the source is measurable and the window is explicit.
Need to be careful about whether the metric is addresses, wallets or active users.
If this gets enough traction, the agent layer can start reading product, social and onchain data around the same thesis.
Community signal
What moves a market from idea to launch.
RepliesCheck whether people understand the question
Quote-castsSurface edge cases and disagreements
Public discussionMake the reasoning visible to everyone
Onchain/offchain signalsConfirm there is enough depth to support a market
Market criteria
Questions should be useful before they are entertaining.
Good question, clear source
Will a named protocol ship its mainnet release before a specific date?
Good question, measurable finish
Will an onchain metric cross a threshold by a clear deadline?
Bad question
Will everyone like this project?
Bad question, vague metric
Is the vibe bullish?
Bad question, no source
Anything that can only be resolved by opinion, not evidence.
Creator fee idea
Build an incentive loop that rewards useful market creation.
A creator fee can make sense when it encourages people to surface high-quality questions and keep the market list healthy. The exact design should stay flexible until launch behavior is visible.
The user should never have to wonder whether a market exists because it is actually useful or because someone needed filler. That distinction matters.
